Archive for October, 2004

Kerry will win

Short and sweet today. New polls are out. Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota are now going to Kerry. Iowa and New Hampshire are the only 2 states where it is a dead heat. Kerry can now win with either one of those states, even if he loses Nevada, New Mexico, West Virginia and Florida, the other very close states. Check it out yourself with the LATimes.com chart.

Kerry looking good!

My apologies. It’s been more than a month since my last post. I was kind of depressed about the election, especially that bounce Bush received after the GOP convention. But now I am ready to move out of pity mode and get back to business.

I am writing this before the second Presidential Debate tonight. I am under no illusions. Kerry has to win all the debates. With the press ready to give the election to Bush with any excuse, Kerry really has to bury Bush just to keep even. Still, that shouldn’t be much of a problem, considering all the hits Bush has been taking lately even from his own party.

And by the way, just what was that on Bush’s back during the first debate? See Salon Magazine today with an article about that. Not to be paranoid, but it really does appear that Bush has an electronic receiver and is being coached by Karl Rove from backstage! Perhaps a reporter should keep his eye on Rove during the debate to see what’s going on!

I have been monitoring 2 websites dilegently during this election: One is the LA Times (www.latimes.com) and the other is Zogby (Zogby.com), the pollster. The LA Times site has this great interactive map of the states, which allows you to play with it to see just what states Kerry or Bush will need to win. For the past month it has looked pretty grim for Kerry. Ohio was going bigtime for Bush, as was Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and all these other midwestern states. It had me wondering what the hell was wrong with those midwesterners anyway. Especially in Ohio, where they are losing all those jobs, not to mention dead soldiers. And Wisconsin, for Chrissakes, they are supposed to be a liberal state. Even Pennsylvania has been nip and tuck.

Anyway, I know that my own state of Washington, as well as Oregon, are going to be Kerry states this year, no matter what the polls might show on any given day. To my analysis the key states are Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. I am most surprised by Florida. I went to high school and college there, and one of the reasons I left was because the place was so damn conservative. And also, the cops were after me, but that’s another story.

So now according to the LA Times and Zogby, a miracle has been happening. Florida is slightly going for Kerry, as is Pennsylvania, and Kerry has practically caught up in Ohio, after being down by 12 to 15 points. Wisconsin, happily, is also back to Kerry.

Bush can’t win without Ohio. Kerry can win if he somehow wins Florida, but it is not absolutely necessary if he wins Ohio and Pennsylvania. Or he could win with Pennsylvania and Florida. I can hardly bring myself to say that. Knowing what I know about Florida, how could it possibly go for Kerry? Needless to say, something has changed in the 30 years since I moved.

I don’t want you to think I place that much faith in the polls by the way. They have been all over the place in the last few months. The reasons? Well first of all there is the telephone thing. Many voters use only cell phones, or refuse to answer if they see an out-of-state call coming in on their caller id. There has been a huge growth in registration of young people and minorities, especially in key states like Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Nobody knows whether these people are going to vote, but if the Democratic party does their job getting the votes out, then there will be high-fives in all the liberal states.

Zogby has always been the most reliable pollster for me. And now he is showing Kerry with the lead in electoral votes, for the first time I believe. So that is also good news. Zogby even shows Kerry ahead in Colorado and Arkansas, amazingly, states that I haven’t even considered possible.

Now I am going home to watch the debate. Hopefully I won’t have to eat crow tomorrow. Please do a good job, JK.